The short-lived uprising of Russian mercenaries could have far-reaching consequences for Putin

Russian government forces withdrew from the streets of Moscow and people flocked to parks and cafes on Sunday after a short-lived revolt. By mercenary forces that have weakened President Vladimir Putin and raised questions about his ability to wage war in Ukraine.

The march of Wagner’s forces into the capital under Yevgeny Prigozhin and the late-night deal that eventually stopped them severely affected Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority. That could open the door for others unhappy with Putin’s two-decade grip on power, especially after his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine..

Under the terms of the agreement, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus But he will not face trial, and neither will his forces. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has been heard from since the deal, which was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, was announced on Saturday night.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the weekend’s events “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin seemed poised to seize Ukraine’s capital, and now he must defend Moscow against the forces he once protected.

“I think we’ve seen more cracks appear on the Russian front,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“It’s too early to say exactly where they’re going and when they’ll get there, but we certainly have all sorts of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.”

It is not yet clear what the divisions triggered by the 24-hour insurgency will mean for the war. But it did result in the withdrawal from the battlefield of some of the best forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine: Prigozhin’s Wagner forces, who proved effective in scoring the Kremlin’s only ground victory in months at Bakhmut, and sent Chechen soldiers to stop them continuing. approach to Moscow.

The rapid advance of Wagner’s forces largely unopposed also exposed the weaknesses of the Russian security and military forces.

“I honestly believe that Wagner may have caused more damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces in the past day than the Ukrainian attack has done in the past three weeks,” Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at the CAN research group, said in a podcast.

Several helicopters and a military communications plane were reported to have been shot down by Wagner’s forces. The Ministry of Defense has not commented.

The Ukrainians had hoped that the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counter-offensive to retake territory captured by Russian forces.

Another question is what will happen to Prigozhin’s Wagner in general. The military contractor has deployed forces in several countries believed to be fighting for Russian interests.

Under the terms of the agreement that halted Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner’s soldiers who did not support the rebellion would be offered direct contracts with the Russian army, placing them under the control of the military officers Prigozhin was trying to overthrow.

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said the deal appeared to be a hasty arrangement aimed at protecting Prigozhin and protecting his and his family’s finances.

“What we don’t know is whether he saved Wagner,” O’Brien wrote in his online newsletter. “It is not clear how many of his mercenaries are coming with him to Belarus, or how many will now have to sign contracts with the Russian army.”

In a lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces on Saturday captured two military centers in southern Russia and moved 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Moscow before withdrawing.

In a scene that plays into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising, video taken by the Associated Press on Saturday in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner’s troops as they left. Some ran to shake his hand as he drove away in the back seat of an SUV.

The district governor later said that all forces had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that the Lipetsk authorities confirmed that Wagner’s forces had left the area on the road to Moscow from Rostov.

Rostov appeared calm on Sunday morning, with only tank tracks lining the roads as reminders of Wagner fighters.

“It all ended well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said one of the residents, who only agreed to give his first name, Sergei. Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, he said, but Not now.”Shouldn’t have happened, but how did it end—thanks for that!”

In the Lipetsk region, residents seemed unfazed by the unrest.

“They didn’t disrupt anything. They just stood quietly on the sidewalk and didn’t approach or speak to anyone.”

The highway was dug up to slow the march, but by Sunday, it had been resurfaced and paved.

As Wagner’s forces moved north towards Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. Chechen state television in Chechnya reported that about 3,000 Chechen soldiers were withdrawn from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early Saturday morning.

By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn from the capital, and people flooded the streets and flocked to the cafés. Traffic has returned to normal and barriers and checkpoints have been removed, but Red Square remains closed to visitors. On the highways to Moscow, crews repaired roads in panic hours before.

Announcers on state-controlled television stations described the deal that ended the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom, broadcasting footage of Wagner’s soldiers withdrawing from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People interviewed by Channel One there praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.

But the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a very precarious balance”.

“The deal is a short-term solution, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has followed the war in Ukraine from the beginning.

Prigozhin had demanded his overthrow Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin has long criticized in dying terms for the way he conducted the war in Ukraine.

The United States had intelligence that Prigozhin had been massing his forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was in response to an attack by the Russian military on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday, which he said killed a large number of his men. The Ministry of Defense denied attacking the camps.

A possible trigger for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin has supported, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin refused to do so.

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Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Nauman Merchant in Washington contributed to this report.

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Follow AP coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war