Assets linked to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November 4 election are experiencing renewed volatility in the wake of the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.
Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin has risen 7% to $62,500 since the weekend attack, boosting the odds of a pro-crypto candidate winning the election to 70% on Polymarket.
The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has crossed above its crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a broad gauge of long-term trends and a trendline marking a downward trend from its early June highs, in a positive sign for momentum traders, according to CoinDesk data. Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which represent the intersection of politics and finance, have also surged.
In recent months, Trump has reversed course and embraced cryptocurrencies to beat his rival Joe Biden and win over the supposedly single-issue crypto community, which is seeking a more industry-friendly regulatory environment. As such, bitcoin and the broader crypto market have become bets on a Trump win. The former president has pledged to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
“The biggest headline over the weekend was the assassination attempt on Trump. It’s absolutely insane,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amperdata, said in an email. “This has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Having Trump as a crypto-friendly president should help spur crypto offerings.”
Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan (CNY) fell against the US dollar as a potential Trump win could mean higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump proposed revoking China’s “most favored nation” status for trade with the US and imposing tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. The Mexican peso (MXN) also fell due to Trump’s tense relations with the Latin American country during his previous presidency.
Futures prices for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell, suggesting yields are rising as Trump’s return to the White House means more spending, tax cuts and a bigger budget deficit. Many investment banks are betting that a likely Trump win would steepen the currently inverted yield curve in the coming months. Historically, steeper slopes have led to widespread risk aversion in financial markets.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 were up 0.18% at the time of writing, pointing to a positive open on Monday even as Asian stocks fell on disappointing economic growth figures in China. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major currencies, was up 0.10% at 104.19, according to TradingView.
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