China seeks “damage control” in Ukraine with Zelensky’s invitation

Chinese President Xi Jinping has met or called his Russian counterpart at least five times since Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine. But his first invitation to Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine came only this week, days after a Chinese envoy to Europe was angered by questioning the sovereignty of post-Soviet states.

Chinese officials say the timing was fortuitous and hail the invitation as the latest step in Beijing’s peace drive. But in Europe, the invitation to the Ukrainian leader is seen by many as an attempt to contain fallout from the ambassador’s remarks.

“They need to do some damage control after the Paris ambassador’s remarks,” said a senior EU official.

After Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion last year, Xi faced growing criticism in the West for maintaining a close relationship with the Russian leader, and the United States warned Beijing against supplying weapons to Moscow.

In February, China issued a 12-point position paper on the war, but that paper was attacked in the West for failing to condemn the invasion and containing more veiled criticism of NATO than Russia.

Those suspicions escalated last month after Xi attended a state visit in Moscow, but he did not immediately follow that up, as was widely expected, with a call to Zelensky.

Many Western analysts believe that Ambassador Le Shay’s anger last weekend, in which he also questioned Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea, played a role in finally speeding up the call.

Others say that China knows it needs to do more to convince Europe of its sincerity if it is to participate in any post-war settlement. This is particularly important as the European Union begins work on a new China policy that is expected to be finalized by the end of June.

“Russia may not win this war,” said Yu Ji, senior researcher on China in the Asia Pacific Program at Chatham House. “China at least wants to have a voice in post-conflict Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from completely turning to the West during the post-conflict nation-building process.”

In the hour-long conversation between the two presidents, the first since the war began, China also said it would send a special envoy to move between the warring sides, its strongest step yet toward trying to play a mediating role in the conflict.

The person chosen is Li Hui, a veteran diplomat and former ambassador to Moscow, who is currently the Chinese government’s special representative on Eurasian affairs.

According to a Chinese official statement, Li will have “in-depth contacts with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

Wang Wen, dean of the Zhongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and a prominent pro-government scholar, said Xi’s call “gives great opposition to rumors that China is pro-Russian and profiting from conflict… China is a peacemaker, not a troublemaker.”

Chinese scientists in Beijing argued that the call was to have been planned weeks in advance, and may not have had much to do with Lu’s explosion.

Instead, China has been taking its time to find its own position on the war rather than being forced to take one by the West, said Cui Hongjian, dean of European studies at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.

China wants its own independence. “We’re not going to just follow you,” he said.

For Ukraine, the invitation did not bring tangible results. But it has at least opened a dialogue with Beijing that can help ensure that China remains militarily neutral. While China’s trade with Russia has risen rapidly, there is no evidence that the country is sending weapons to Putin’s military.

Before the war, China and Ukraine had a close relationship. Academics in Beijing cite Ukraine’s sale to China in 1998 of a hull that became the Asian country’s first aircraft carrier as a sign of their long friendship.

European leaders ostensibly applauded the call. “It is an important and long overdue first step on the part of China,” said Eric Mamer, a spokesman for Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

An Elysee official confirmed that Emmanuel Macron urged Xi to speak to Zelensky during the French president’s state visit to Beijing earlier this month.

Macron has long said he believes China has a role to play in influencing Russia, and has asked his top diplomat to contact his Chinese counterpart to prepare for possible peace talks, if Ukraine agrees to participate.

But US officials responded skeptically.

“Whether that will lead to some kind of meaningful peace movement or plan or proposal, I don’t think we know that now,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the invitation showed “China’s willingness to make efforts to straighten out the negotiation process,” but added that the United States might push Ukrainian “puppets” to reject Beijing’s proposals.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia was “ready to welcome everything that could bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine” but said Russia remained determined to “achieve all the goals that have been set”.

Alexander Jaboyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that inviting Xi and appointing Li as envoy allowed China to continue to present itself as a potential peacemaker while doing little to stop the war.

There are positive side effects of the war for China: Russia becomes the junior partner who sells them energy and other resources at a discount. But there are negative side effects: China is criticized for supporting Russia. So China needs to show that it is for peace, not for Russia.

“European leaders have long said that Xi should talk to Zelensky if he is seriously interested in peace.”

Beijing said that during the call, Xi reiterated China’s opposition to any use of nuclear weapons in war. “Nobody wins a nuclear war,” Xi was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.

China’s opposition to the use of nuclear weapons is one of the few areas in which it has publicly differed from Putin, who has repeatedly threatened to deploy them.

Overall, analysts said the invitation represented a “flanking move” by China to prop itself up against its main adversary, the United States, with which it is engaged in an increasingly tense competition in everything from Taiwan and the South China Sea to the economy. and advanced technology.

By presenting a more neutral front, according to analysts, China hoped to drive a wedge between the United States and the European Union while also showing the developing world that it was a force for peace, unlike Washington, which it accuses of pouring weapons into. the war.

The senior EU official said the call was “a signal to others in the Global South that they are a global leader”.

“If you want more influence on everyone, you must have a semblance of impartiality,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, adding that you have “nothing to lose” with a simple phone call.

Additional reporting by Max Seddon in Riga, Henry Foy in Brussels, James King and Yuan Yang in London, and Leila Abboud in Paris