Don’t be complacent before the Fed meeting, says Jim Cramer

CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors on Friday to be wary of the week ahead, though the market has been fairly quiet on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will not conclude with a rate hike.

“Not a surprise to regular viewers, I don’t trust a benign market like this,” Cramer said. “Too many things can surprise you, too many things can panic you, and of course they can make you sell, because if you get to those levels — you start buying today, for example — you probably won’t have much conviction if the market takes sudden fainting.”

And on Monday, Cramer will be watching software company Oracle’s earnings report, expected after the market closes. He suggests buying some stocks before but waiting to see if it goes down after the report and buying more if it does.

Home Depot will hold an analyst meeting on Tuesday, which Cramer believes will be important because the company is currently in “Christmas season” due to the spring and summer gardening spree.

“I think we’re going to hear that increasingly do-it-yourself people are buying things, that’s a change, and fixing up their homes, that they haven’t been able or willing to sell—why?” Kramer asked. “Because they don’t want to lose those low mortgages they’ve had for the last five years.”

Wednesday will bring central bank news, and Cramer isn’t convinced that Chairman Jerome Powell has completely lost his hard line. Lennar, based in Florida, will be making its phone call that day as well, and Cramer expects to hear about a “witchcraft brew” of inflation, as labor, house and material costs soar.

Thursday will be all about retail, as investors hear from supermarket chain Kroger, which is trying to merge with Albertsons against Federal Trade Commission Chair Lena Khan’s wishes.

On Friday, Kramer said, investors will be able to see more clearly in consumers’ minds with the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

“Please don’t get caught up in complacency like so many people have now that we’re going back — there’s still a lot more that could go wrong in the market, a lot more than I thought, and certainly a lot more,” Cramer said.

He added, “I would be very surprised if Wall Street was pleased with the Fed meeting next Wednesday. So, brace yourself, even as I like to be wrong about this.”