Epidemic status in three graphs

Public debate about “herd immunity” often treats it as an on-off switch: when the United States reaches herd immunity, the crisis is over; Until then, the country had had little or no immunity from Covid-19.

But this is not true.

Herd immunity is more like light dimmer. The more people develop immunity – whether from infection or from vaccination – the less easily the virus can spread.

Nearly 30 percent of Americans They are now infected with the virusAccording to Youyang Gu, a data scientist. (This includes many people who have never had a Covid test.) About 18 percent You’ve had at least one vaccination. There is some overlap between these two groups, which means that About 40 percent of Americans now have some protection from Covid.

Had these people been exposed to the virus a year ago, they could have become infected – and then passed on Covid to others. Today, many are protected.

“This level of population immunity slows transmission of infection,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, wrote in the Washington Post. “After millions of infections and the start of the vaccination campaign, the virus is finally, slowly, running out of new people to infect.”

The epidemic is still far from over. The situation may be exacerbated again by a combination of risky behavior and novel virus variants. Experts are particularly concerned about some countries Rush to lift mask authorizations And the Restrictions on indoor gatherings. At the moment, however, the trends of the virus are improving, thanks in large part to the high level of immunity.

When I last gave you an overview of the situation in the United States – two weeks ago – She highlighted a mix of positive trends (decreasing deaths in nursing homes and encouraging news of vaccinations) and negative (increasing number of cases and decreasing numbers of vaccinations). Since then, the good news has largely continued, and the bad news has not. Below is a new update, aided by three charts.

Cases are declining – slowly

When the number of new cases began to rise last month, it was reasonable to ask whether variants of the most contagious viruses were about to cause an increase across the country. they do not have. Later, February increase looks like a picture:

One caveat, as you can see in the chart, is that the recent decline is much lighter than declines during most of January and February. The causes are not entirely clear, and variables may play a role. Either way, this is another sign that the epidemic is not about to end.

The current pace won’t be impressive for long. By the end of the month, the federal government will receive, on average, more than Three million doses a day, from Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and Pfizer. At this point, three million daily shots would be a more reasonable goal.

How quickly the Biden administration and state governments can get there will help determine how many lives are saved and how quickly normalcy can return.

The variants seem a little less intimidating

I recommend that you keep two different ideas about variants in mind at the same time: First, one or more variants can create terrible problems – by being highly contagious, by re-infecting people who have already contracted Covid or by causing more severe symptoms . a British study Released yesterday, for example, the B.1.1.7 variant was found to increase the risk of death in unvaccinated people.

But – here’s the second thought – the general evidence for variants has been more encouraging so far than many people expected. Vaccines virtually eliminate hospitalizations and deaths in people who contract the variant. Re-infection does not appear to be widespread. And even if the variants were more contagious, they didn’t cause the kind of sudden increases that seemed possible two weeks ago.

In Florida, where B.1.1.7 is widespread, “there is no indication of any increase in cases”, Dr. Eric Topol Books from Scripps Research. In South Africa, where the B.1.351 variant was first detected, however, cases are sinking:

It’s a noticeable drop, given the variant. What explains that? A growing innate immunity seems to be part of the reason, The Financial Times reported,. high vaccinations also helps. So did the restrictions imposed by South Africa in late December and January, including “a ban on the sale of alcoholic beverages, the closure of all land borders and most beaches, and an extended curfew,” Bloomberg explained.

bottom line

The South Africa situation is also a useful summary of the US position: Natural immunity has become an important force in slowing the epidemic, but government policy can still make a big difference, by speeding vaccination and discouraging needlessly risky behaviour.

Over the past week, another 12,000 Americans have died of Covid. The crisis continues.

In other virus news:

• The United States plans to purchase additional 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which can be used to vaccinate children as soon as the US Food and Drug Administration allows it.

• The Biden administration relaxed Guidelines for nursing home visits. The advice recommends external visits, but states that “responsible internal visitation” should be allowed.

latest news

Biden administration

Ten years later: In 2011, the tsunami disaster Destroy the Japanese village of Kisen. Residents realized that the void is forever.

who saw: If American democracy is to last, the stall must go, The Times editorial board argues that.

live live: In 1994, thieves stole “Scream,” Edvard Munch’s masterpiece, from the National Gallery in Oslo. Three months later, it was brought back, thanks in large part to the efforts of a Scotland Yard investigator named Charles Hill. Hill died at 73.

arts and ideas

People pay a lot of money for gifs

Last month, someone bought a gif from a file flying cat For more than $500,000. a Short video By artist Beeple it went for nearly $7 million. Anyone can still view or share clips. So what’s the point of owning it?

It may not make sense to everyone – and it has elements of a financial bubble. It mostly comes down to expensive bragging rights, as well as the possibility of reselling them for more money.

These rights are known as NFTs, which are short for “Non-Foldable Tokens”. “It seems crazy to do this for something purely digital that can be easily copied and shared online,” said Erin Griffiths, a technology reporter for the Times. written about the direction, Tell us. “But the popularity of NFTs shows that people are willing to pay for rare collectors’ items.”

Technology has made it easier for artists, musicians, and sports franchisees to make money from digital goods. The NBA recently introduced a series of NFTs, best shot, which converts featured clips into trading cards. in music, Latest album By Kings of Leon is NFT.

Play, watch, all

what are you cooking

what are you reading

“The Cuddle” by Jackie Polzen is “a wonderfully written first novel, full of nuance, humor, and eccentricity”, novelist Elizabeth McCracken writes in the review.

It was the ant taken from Spelling Bee yesterday booklet. Here’s today’s puzzle – or you can play online.

over here Today’s mini crossword puzzleManual: pops (three letters).

If you are in the mood to play more, look no further All our games are here.

Thank you for spending part of your morning with The Times. see you tomorrow. – David

Note: The Senate has confirmed Janet Reno as the nation’s first attorney general in 28 years. Thames story She quotes a Delaware senator praising her: “President Clinton—albeit not the first time at bat—has been a huge success.”

you can see Today’s print front page is here.

Today’s episode ofnewspaper“About the similarities between Diana and Megan. On”wobbleSpike Lee discusses his films.