Keith Law’s Biggest MLB Draft Surprises, Top Team Picks, and Best Players Available

After all the gossip, rumors, and claims of crazy pre-draft trades and shocking picks, the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft mostly featured players we thought would go in the first round. MLB teams selected 74 players on Day 1, and 66 of them were in my top 100.

Of the first 30 picks—the true first round—25 of those players were ranked in the top 31. There were no major shocks, no players outside the top 100 were selected in the first round, no players were over-selected, and for the most part the best players went to the top of the draft.

Here are some general notes followed by my thoughts on the individual picks for the entire first round. I’ll be doing a team-by-team recap of each of the 30 clubs later this week, so if I don’t mention your team here, you’ll have to be patient.

Cleveland Guards: They got the first pick and took one of the only two viable options in my opinion, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazana. The Guardians then turned around and took a high school pitcher, Braylon Doughty, with their first-round Competitive Balance (CBA) pick at No. 36, which I assume will absorb a lot of the savings from what would have been a less-than-positional deal with Bazana. They then followed up with North Carolina State outfielder Jacob Cozart, who has quietly had a great year at the plate for the Wolfpack, with their second-round pick (No. 48). I feel like they signed two everyday players at the middle positions, and then picked a very good high school player.

Colorado Rocky Mountains: The Rockies landed my No. 1 pick, Golden Spikes Award winner Charlie Condon, and another first-round talent, Iowa right-hander Brodie Brecht, after selecting him in the CBA at No. 38. Brecht is a project, a high school arm on a college player’s body, so to speak, but if anyone needs to take a risk on high-performance pitching, it’s the Rockies.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The DeBucks landed two of my top 15 picks in high school linebacker Slade Caldwell (No. 29) and Kentucky linebacker Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 31). Caldwell is a shortstop from Arkansas who would likely be a lot taller at 6-foot-1, but he can really hit and defend. Waldschmidt was one of the best hitters in the college pool but seemed to slip as some teams worried about the knee injury (ACL) that ended his 2023 season. They went for a bit of a bump with J.D. Dicks, a high school linebacker from Wisconsin who is committed to Oregon, at No. 35, then went for a lot with their final pick of the day, Puerto Rican catcher Ivan Luciano (No. 64), who will likely come in lower.

Kansas City Royals: Look, I don’t think Jack Caglianone is a two-way player, and I’m not sure I think the Royals are, even though they advertised him as one. He has the power the Royals have been looking for throughout franchise history, and it makes perfect sense to pick him at No. 6, when he was one of the best players available anyway. I also like picking left-handed pitcher David Shields at No. 41. He’s got very high marks for his delivery and pitching feel, and I’m all for picking high schoolers who have those things and who could have great speed in a few years.

New York Mets and New York Yankees: If you don’t like New York, skip this note. I like the Mets’ picks, with Carson Bing (No. 19), a big-hitter with great hitting ability who needs some minor tweaks to get to power; and Jonathan Santucci (No. 46), a left-handed pitcher from Duke who has first-round skills and has some injury concerns after the 2023 season ends with a broken elbow. Santucci was their second-round pick, and taking a first-rounder like him with your second pick is a big risk. Meanwhile, the Yankees took one of my personal favorites with this pick, Alabama right-hander Ben Hess, with their first pick (No. 26), followed by Vanderbilt right-hander Bryce Cunningham (No. 53). Both seem like the kind of pitchers who would thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.

Seattle Mariners: I heard the Mariners wanted to pitch, and they’ve signed two of my top 30 pitchers, ambidextrous pitcher Georgeangelo Sientje (No. 15) and right-handed pitcher Ryan Sloan (No. 55). (Commissioner Rob Manfred has declared Sientje an “ambidextrous pitcher.” What? We don’t say “ambidextrous hitter.” We say ambidextrous hitter, and we should say ambidextrous pitcher.) Sloan is a very good player, hitting 100 mph with a changeup ball, and if he can prove he’ll throw enough strikes, the Mariners should be dealing him hard. Their system is very much about hitters, and they just happened to pick a pair of hands in the first round.

Washington Nationals: The Nats have done well with their three picks, which they just acquired from the Royals on Saturday in exchange for Hunter Harvey, getting Wake Forest center/infielder Seaver King with their first pick (No. 10) and high school quarterback Luke Dickerson with their third pick (No. 44). They used the new pick (No. 39) on Cal center Caleb Lomavita, which is a fair choice, though I can’t stand a guy who isn’t as patient as he is at hitting.

Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies make surprise picks: The biggest surprises in the first round in terms of rankings were Braylon Payne (Milwaukee) and Dante Norrie (Philadelphia). Payne was ranked 17th overall; I ranked him 78th, despite his 80 speed, because he needs to get a lot stronger just to hit hard enough to make speed matter. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but it takes time, and there’s a risk he won’t get to the power he needs. Norrie was ranked 27th overall, and I ranked him 65th, more than anything else because he’s a 19-year-old high school graduate—he’ll turn 20 in October. He has tools, and I think there could be another degree of power there if someone toned down his lower half. I’m not saying either of them are bad picks, by no means, but I didn’t see either guy going in the first round.

Vance Honeycutt was dealt to the Orioles with the 22nd pick. (Ben McEwen/Associated Press)

Where did the notable names land: Most of the big-name players who entered the draft underperformed what their fame would suggest. Caglianone was probably the most popular player in the class, going sixth, which isn’t too bad but not the 1-1 player the hype would have you believe. Vance Honeycutt squeezed his way into the first round at No. 22 with Baltimore. Tommy White, aka Tommy Tanks, who was the nation’s top freshman in 2022, ended up going to Oakland at the 40th pick. The industry is pretty good at ignoring the hype and evaluating players.

Best players available for day 2

1. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (#34)
2. Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech (No. 35)
3. Dakota Jordan, outside linebacker, Mississippi State (No. 49)
4. DeMarion Terrell, Outfielder, Thompson High School, Alabama (#52)
5. Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (No. 54)
6. Carson Wiggins, right-handed pitcher, Rowland High School, Oklahoma (#55)
7. Jared Jones, 1B, Louisiana State University (#57)
8. Connor Gatewood, Right Handed, Baker High School, Alabama (#61)
9. Dax Whitney, Right Handed, Blackfoot High School, Idaho (#63)
10. Mike Sirota, Outfielder, Northeastern (#65)

The list of top available players looks different this year — it’s usually mostly high schoolers with big price tags, but this year the top three players are college students, and only four of the remaining top 10 players are high schoolers. DeMarion Terrell and Connor Gatewood are committed to Auburn, Dax Whitney is committed to Oregon, and Carson Wiggins is committed to Arkansas. I imagine the six college players here will be off the list quickly unless there’s a medical or some other non-baseball factor that I haven’t heard of.

(Top photo: L.M. Otero/Associated Press)