India, the world’s largest arms importer, has diversified its defence import portfolio and developed domestic manufacturing in recent years but still buys more than 50% of its defence equipment from Russia.
India has also increased its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of cheaper prices offered by Moscow, as Russia was the largest oil supplier to India last year.
The United States and its allies have often urged India to take a clearer stance on the war, but have also refrained from imposing harsh sanctions or pressure.
The West also sees India as a counterweight to China and does not want to upset that dynamic. India, now the world’s fifth-largest economy, is also a growing business market.
Mr Kugelman says the West will welcome the visit and see it as a willingness by Delhi to engage with all sides.
“Mr Modi has a strong incentive to suggest that India is not getting so close to Moscow that there is nothing to salvage with Kiev,” he says.
This is important because India wants to continue to grow its relations with the West, especially the United States, and does not want to disrupt that momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, recently said that the relationship should not be “taken for granted.”
India also needs the West, given the close ties that its Asian rival China has built with Russia in recent years.
Although New Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a power capable of exerting pressure on China when needed, this cannot be taken for granted.
At the same time, many media commentators have spoken of the possibility that Mr Modi could present himself as a peacemaker, given India’s close ties with both Moscow and the West.
But he is unlikely to come up with a peace plan.
“Is India really ready for this, and are the conditions right? India doesn’t like other countries trying to mediate its own issues, most notably Kashmir. I don’t think Mr. Modi will formally offer to mediate unless Russia and Ukraine want to. And at this point, I don’t think they want to,” Kugelman added.
