NCAA Tournament Game Pick: San Diego State vs. UConn

Athletic has live coverage of OConn vs. San Diego State In the International tournament.

It’s hard to believe, but there is only one game to play in the 2022-23 college basketball season. It’s been an interesting and volatile ride, but we have a great match that takes us across the finish line. 500 against the 2023 NCAA Men’s Championship spread.

So I give you my shining prediction. Enjoy the game tonight everyone, and thanks for riding with me all season.

2023 NCAA Tournament: 33-33
2022-23 regular season: 45-30

Tonight’s Line is via BetMGM.

No. 4 O’Conn (-7 1/2) vs. No. 5 San Diego State, 9:20 p.m. ET, CBS. Miami is a really good basketball team, but for most of Saturday night, the O’Connell made the Hurricanes look positive. The Huskies went 14-4 (thanks to two 3-pointers from 6-9 rookie forward Adama Sanogo), led by 13 in the first half, and extended their lead to 20 early in the second half, except for one brief run. As Miami closed to within eight, Never Threatened en route to a yawning 72-59.

That was impressive enough, but it’s especially so when you consider that the Huskies didn’t even have their “A” game. And the team’s MVP, Jordan Hawkins, was saddled with a stomach bug that limited him to 13 points. Their top playmaker and Glue Guy, Andre Jackson Jr., got into trouble early in the first half and had six points and four assists in 22 minutes. All eight UConn rotation players scored, led by Sanogo with 21 points and 10 rebounds. By the time the championship game rolls around, Hawkins will have another 48 hours to rest and recuperate, Jackson will be eager to use his mulgan, and the rest of the Huskies will be full of confidence knowing they were able to contribute on the biggest stage when their team needed them most.

The performance was just an extension of what UConn has done throughout this tournament. All of the Huskies’ five wins have come in double digits. They attacked a really good Gonzaga team by 28 points in the Elite Eight. They have everything a team needs to win a national championship – shooting, size, speed, athleticism, rebounding depth, effective defense, the ability to score inside and out, and play in the half court or in transition. And they have a hardcore coach who hails from the Kings of Basketball.

Meanwhile, San Diego State has won each of its last two games by one point, including Saturday’s dramatic victory over Florida Atlantic that came thanks to game winner Lamont Butler. The Aztecs play great defense—they rank fourth nationally in modified efficiency on KenPom—but they showed some weaknesses against FAU. The Aztecs reached the semi-finals after holding opponents to 17 percent from 3 points in the tournament, but the Owls sank 41 percent on 22 attempts and scored 71 points. SDSU also had one extra bounce even though the Owls are ranked #328 in height on KenPom. UConn ranks 28th in height, and the Huskies are ranked second in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. So here’s another area the Aztecs used to dominate but they’ll be playing until (or potentially at a disadvantage) tonight.

There are two ways San Diego State can get rid of this disorder. The first is to make it a half-court mill case. This is very reasonable. The Aztecs averaged just 10.0 turnover per game in the tournament, and they’ve held their opponents to 60.0 points per game. When it comes to setting the pace, the team that wants to play slowly always has the advantage over the team that wants to play fast. If nothing else, that would be reason to believe San Diego State could stay close enough to cover this large point spread. UConn is clearly the better team, but 7 1/2 points is a lot of wood to put in the national championship game.

The other way San Diego State can win is by shooting the lights from 3-point range. This is not believable. The Aztecs averaged 19.9 3 points attempts per game this season, which ranks 264th in the country, and in the tournament, they’re making 33.3 percent as a team. Their leading scorer, Matt Bradley, 6-4, finally snapped out of his slump for 21 points on 4-of-8 3-point shooting Saturday night, but he’ll be up against one of the best defensemen in the Pacific tonight. in jackson. There’s no doubt that UConn coach Dan Hurley will tell Jackson that it’s his job to make sure Bradley doesn’t get any clean looks, thus forcing the other Aztecs to make up for it. These players have advanced at times (especially Butler and 5-10 senior guard Darion Tramell), but to win a National Championship your best players need to be at their best. Jackson will make sure that Bradley is not at his best.

There is certainly a strong reason why San Diego State plays this game. However, as was the case Saturday night with Miami, the Aztecs will find themselves overwhelmed by a superior opponent who performs at maximum capacity. We can look for ways San Diego State can win this game or at least keep it close, but that will require looking deep into the dirt when the woods tell us something obvious. UConn would control this game, eliminating the free throws required to clear them, and winning in double digits to claim the school’s fifth NCAA championship. Pick: Okun

(Photo by Matt Bradley: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images