WATCH: Jurickson Profar kicked out of Padres after discussing important swing check call at NLCS Game 3

To some extent, the MLB rulebook doesn’t conclusively define what is or isn’t a swing, leaving referees to make such calls based on judgment, and perhaps oral tradition. The referee is usually called a trapeze if the tip of the barrel goes beyond the front of the plate or the loose line. In the absence of an angle close to seeing Tichenor below that rotten third base line, we can’t say definitively whether the call was true or false based on the video and still images above. Anecdotally, most real-time observers seemed to believe it wasn’t a swing, but, again, we didn’t have a Tichenor angle on things.

“I thought it was really big. I thought I didn’t go. It had to be a picnic,” Provar told reporters afterwards.

What is indisputable is that the call, which turned Sir into a strike, significantly reduced Padres’ chances of returning. Had Provar walked, the Baders would have had 1st and 2nd place riders and no 4th place. The difference in these conditions averaged 1.51 points in those innings. Padres, of course, was down by two times. That plus the fact that the Phillies would still hit in the lower half of the game in the event of a tie or a Padres lead means San Diego, had Provar marched, would have had a 23.47 percent chance of winning Game Three. .

Things as they actually were after Tichenor’s call – one runner in the start and one – gave the Padres a 6.59% chance of winning game 3. Yes, they would have very likely lost anyway even if Profar had arrived, but they will. The probability of their return was almost four times greater. Perhaps pushing that number at 23.47 per cent higher given that Dominguez was in his second turn of the business and Provar’s arrival would still have needed the fourth, fifth and sixth periods of his night.

However, none of that happened, and Velez won 2-1 in a best-of-seven duel for the pennant. Tichenor’s call, which, again, may not have been wrong, did not directly lead to this result, but made it more likely.