Macron is still considering a break with the left, but has so far “underestimated” it.

Faced with impasse, Emmanuel Macron continues to seek to break the left in order to lure the Social Democrats into a government coalition. But since he controversially dissolved the National Assembly, these opponents have been able to defy his calculations to stand together despite their differences.

• Read more: France without a government: Macron launches his proposals to break the deadlock

“Macron greatly underestimates the left,” insists a presidential camp executive from the Socialist ranks.

The Elysee wrote it in black and white on Monday, in which the head of state formally ruled out appointing a New People’s Front (NFP) government. “Henceforth”, the “Socialist Party, ecologists and communists” must “cooperate with other political forces”, affirmed the presidency in a tone of prohibition.

More than seven weeks after legislative elections resulted in an ungovernable France, the bet remains: Macron wants to push behind a health curve to drive a wedge between these three parties and their allies within the NFP, La France insoumise.

“The central question: “Can they break away from NFP? “”, translates the resigning minister. But he admits that the same calculation remains uncertain because the “fundamental error” of dissolution was that it was already predicted that it would “explode the left.”

Indeed, on June 9, the decision to dissolve by surprise was dictated by an Elysian strategist’s desire to “catch by surprise” the left, whose divisions appeared in European elections that seemed at the time irreconcilable in theory.

In this speed race, only PS, PCF, environmentalists and agitators came together immediately and took everyone by surprise. Partly thanks to the anti-national rally “Republican Front”, this allowed them, against all expectations, to secure a large number of delegates.

“All Gone”

Since then, the NFP has claimed to govern, albeit far from an absolute majority. But President Macron, doubting his ability to agree on a name for Matignon, put off.

On July 23, the coalition proposed the candidacy of senior civil servant Lucy Castets and failed again as it overcame its differences.

Emmanuel Macron initially rejected this option, advocating instead a “struggle” during the Olympic Games. Again, let the situation “settle”…and the left would split, again, in the presidential camp as expected.

Alas, the NFP has so far almost succeeded in speaking with one voice.

So the state president finally decided to pretend to consider the Jatiwari option, organized consultations, and ultimately rejected it due to the threat of immediate censure invoked by the other party.

What next? According to many of the president’s interlocutors, this long “formation” has at least evolved him, and he is now more willing to appoint a prime minister from the center-left than he was in July. Always with the intention of breaking NFP.

In contrast, the coalition does not appear to be split, despite the Elysée’s hopes, which in the center of the summer emphasize the rare socialist positions most favorable to a coalition, such as that of Senator Rachid Demel or deputy Philippe Brun.

“By behaving in such a brutal manner, Emmanuel Macron has tightened the left around his candidate Lucie Castets and her project,” responded LFI MEP Manon Aubry.

“I don’t see how the PS can separate itself from the rest of the left,” added Socialist representative Laurent Baumel. According to him, any left-wing personality would be putting himself in the “role of a traitor” if he agreed to be appointed to Matignon at Mr. Macron’s initiative.

Macron has leaked several names of what he calls the “regal left”, including former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, or socialist mayors of Saint-Ouen Karim Bouamrane and Montpellier Michaël Delafosse.

“We should have no illusions, if the president appoints a Cazeneuve, the first day the NFP will be united, the PS will cry corruption and trap,” warns the executive of the presidential camp. “Then, it might be difficult for the PS to censor it,” he believes.

But the tenant of the Élysée leaves with a handicap that might seem surprising to someone from the left. “There are not enough left-wing people around Macron. They are all gone,” says another minister who is resigning.

The Macronist structure is full of relays and lacks real political advisers. “He has some mercenaries, but they are all right-wing mercenaries.”