Putin re-elected: after Ukraine, Moldova, Transnistria and the Caucasus

Putin's inevitable re-election this week to a new six-year term as Russia's president is causing some concern in the West. The election would allow him to remain in the Kremlin until 2030. Nearly three decades of power would place him in the leading group of Russian autocrats alongside Stalin and Catherine II.

Not only did he succeed in dissuading the Russian people from their dismay at the nearly 400,000 soldiers killed in the Ukraine, he also eliminated two of his strongest enemies. The first was Alexeï Navalny, possibly assassinated on his orders in a Russian penal colony in February. and mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in an explosion on a plane last August after leading a mutiny against Putin.

His re-election could make things difficult for NATO members. Especially in Washington that has seen Trump return to power, he threatens to take back the US.

A second lead for Putin

With his fake re-election, Putin could trigger a new crisis in Eastern Europe. It is no coincidence that officials from the pro-Russian separatist regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia in Moldova have asked Moscow to “protect” them against Moldovan officials they accuse of seeking reunification. Moldova is a landlocked country between Romania and Ukraine. The Moldovan government has no such intentions.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says protecting Transnistrian residents — calling them “comrades” — is one of Russia's priorities.

Eastern part of Moldova, Transnistria A narrow strip (about 250 km) along Ukraine's western border inhabited by Russian speakers where Russian troops have been stationed since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The White House still found it necessary to announce that “given Russia's increasingly aggressive role in Europe, we are closely monitoring Russia's actions in Transnistria.”

And Transnistria is not just a Moldovan problem. Putin also said he would support it this week Moldovan Autonomous Region of Caucasus, further fueling fears of instability in Moldova. Caucausia is a region of about 150,000 people in southern Moldova that was granted some autonomy from Moldova after the fall of the Soviet Union.

It all seems to be part of a Russian plan Increasing political tension in Moldova This fall could be preceded by a crucial presidential election in the country, along with a vote on its membership in the European Union.

If indeed Putin decides to intervene, he will justify himself by claiming that he is acting to protect Russian citizens, as he did in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and in Georgia's separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both these cases led to war.

Putin knows that the West is already embroiled in several crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the ongoing US election campaign limits US intervention possibilities: he can count on Trump and the Republicans.

Putin is the czar of all Russia

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, concerns have grown that Moldova and Georgia may remain Next on the list. Putin, as we know, wants to rebuild Russia as it was during the Soviet and Tsarist empires.

Moldova and Georgia have pro-Western governments like Ukraine and want to join the EU, as Finland and Norway — Russia's other neighbors — have recently done.