Risk on the rise in Lebanon: “People better take a leave,” warns a former diplomat

The situation in Lebanon looks worse than it did in 2006 and could deteriorate dangerously, and people should leave the country while they still have the means, a former Canadian ambassador to Lebanon has warned.

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“Now, the situation is different, it’s been six months, otherwise, Ottawa is warning Canadians to leave,” explained Louis de Lorimier.

According to him, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon in 2006 is very different from the ones that could explode today because there was no warning at the time, whereas now residents can take advantage of the fact that commercial flights are still operating.

“The nuance we have to do on the other hand is that in 2006, it was generally 99% of dual citizens, ie [des] Canadian-Lebanese. Often, these Lebanese, even though they are Canadians, no longer have many ties to Canada, so they seek to stay as long as possible in Lebanon,” he added.

The ambassador argues that neighboring Cyprus, separated from Lebanon by the Mediterranean Sea, may have already developed ways to accommodate evacuees. However, the situation is worse than in 2006.

“In 2006, Israel was “inclined” to bomb near the border or in southern Lebanon. […] This time it might be completely different because, Hezbollah, they seem to have 150,000 missiles, some of which could hit anywhere in Israel, which was not the case in 2006,” he said.

According to Mr de Lorimier, the danger is that Hezbollah and Israel will start targeting big cities. “There, it will be a very dangerous and very destructive war.”

In 2006, the man who led the evacuation of many Canadians in the Lebanese capital of Beirut warned, “It’s so terrible when people still have their means.”