The “victory” Ukraine wants over Russia may not be achievable

While additional aid allows Ukraine to continue fighting Russian forces in the short term, achieving “victory” in the near term is unlikely. What's more, what “victory” might look like for Ukraine, or its allies, could be a source of friction.

“While renewed US military support is likely to avert a potential military defeat in 2024, the past few months have clearly demonstrated the risks of Kiev’s (over)reliance on US military aid,” said Andrius Torsa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Consulting. he said in emailed comments on Tuesday.

“There is also a lack of a shared vision between Kiev and its allies about what Ukrainian ‘victory’ means and what steps and resources are needed to achieve it,” he noted.

“Officially, Kiev still aims to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, but few find this realistic in the near-to-medium term.”

Discussions on alternative settlement options acceptable to Kiev may resume later in 2024, especially “with a growing proportion of the Ukrainian population willing to consider territorial concessions in exchange for a cessation of hostilities/peace,” Torsa said.

Kiev insists it will liberate all of its territory that Russia has seized since 2014. This includes Crimea and four Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed in 2022, which it has since sought to “Russify” by distributing Russian passports. And pensions and benefits are erased. Ukrainian culture, history and language from public places and schools.

The Russian leadership has effectively staked its authority, legitimacy, and legacy on winning in Ukraine, and is unlikely to voluntarily withdraw its forces from southern and eastern Ukraine. This is particularly the case in eastern Ukraine, where it has enjoyed the support of pro-Russian separatists for more than a decade.

Analysts say an “honest” conversation must take place between allies and Ukraine to determine what victory might look like, along with what concessions and compromises might need to be made in any peace settlement or ceasefire.

“I want to see editing [Russian]occupied territories but it is very difficult to do so, at least at this moment. “We need to talk about this with our partners and achieve this unity with our partners,” said Oleksandr Musienko, a Kiev-based military expert and head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.

Mosienko said the morale boost from the recent US aid injection means there is currently little appetite among the Ukrainian leadership to discuss a possible end to the war that does not involve an outright victory.

“Here in Ukraine, people and politicians are a little sensitive when talking about this, but I am sure that we need to be honest with the Ukrainian people as well as with our Western partners, and this is very important,” he said. CNBC Wednesday.

Mosienko said the best solution for Ukraine is to liberate all of its territory from Russian forces and join NATO and the European Union, “but I'm sure we need to talk about different scenarios.” Much may depend on what difference the latest US aid package worth $61 billion, and the weapons and equipment it provides to Ukraine, will make on the battlefield – and how much future support Ukraine receives after the US presidential election later this year.

If Russian forces can be weakened, exhausted and pushed back in the coming months, particularly in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, this could open space for talks and a ceasefire with the support of allies, according to Mosienko. This also depends on Ukraine receiving strong security and defense guarantees.

In such a scenario, he said, there could be a balance of power of sorts, in what could ultimately become a long-term, if unstable, ceasefire.

“[In such a scenario] The Ukrainians will not have much power to liberate the old territories, according to international borders, and the Russians will not have much power to occupy more territories.”

Mosienko said Ukraine would never recognize that the occupied territories belong to Russia, but a ceasefire would buy the country time. “So in this scenario, Ukraine will retain independence and sovereignty, Western support will be high and we can communicate with our partners,” he said.

“We will never agree on this [occupied territory] It could be Russian territory. No one will agree. But we will continue to wait like East and West Germany [before their reunification in 1990]. “This may be the scenario we can realistically expect.”