ANKARA – With less than 40 hours left until Turkey’s closest election in its modern history, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his biggest rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, are ending their campaigns. Recent polls have given the lead to the main opposition leader.
Almost all opinion polls published this week showed Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan. It remains unclear whether the main opposition leader will have enough support (more than 50% of the vote) to win the presidential election in the first round, and avoid a run-off.
A poll by Istanbul-based Yoneylem, released on Friday, gave Kilicdaroglu a lead of more than 5 points, at 49.5% to Erdogan’s 44.4%. The survey was conducted between May 9 and 10.
Another poll by the Ankara-based research firm ORC, also released on Friday, showed Kilicdaroglu passing the crucial 50% mark for his election in the first round, with his support standing at 51.7%. An ORC poll conducted from May 10-11 showed Erdogan’s support at 44.2%.
With both polls being conducted before presidential candidate Muharrem Ince dropped out of the race on Thursday, it remains unclear how his absence will affect opinion polls on Sunday. Ince’s approval rating was 1.4% and 1.3% according to Yoneylem and ORC, respectively.
Kilicdaroglu concluded his rallies after a rally in Ankara on Friday. He was reportedly wearing body armor for the first time on campaign, with heavily armed guards behind him. The increase in his details came after a journalist close to the opposition claimed at dawn on Friday that an assassination team had entered Turkey from Georgia to target Kilicdaroglu. The Istanbul Public Prosecutor opened an investigation against journalist Merdan Yanardag for publishing disinformation.
13. Cumhurbaşkanı
Kemal Kilicdaroglu 🫶🌸 pic.twitter.com/yaL6whClf3– Hulya Ansal (Pamuk_Miya) May 12, 2023
Russian intervention
Meanwhile, the Kremlin on Friday strongly denied Kilicdaroglu’s accusations. An opposition candidate warned Moscow on Thursday against election interference, saying some of the fake videos targeting an opposition figure originated in Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the source who informed Kilicdaroglu as a “liar”, saying that his country greatly values relations with Turkey. Russian media quoted Peskov as saying that “Moscow does not interfere in the domestic politics of other countries.”
In response, Kilicdaroglu told Reuters on Friday that his team had specific information indicating Russian interference.
In televised remarks at the Youth Summit in Istanbul, Erdogan criticized Kilicdaroglu for his accusations. And now he is attacking Mr. Putin and attacking Russia. … I’m sorry, but I can’t be silent when you attack Putin. Because our relations with Russia are no less than our relations with the United States.
