Ukraine: 2023 will be a decisive year

The war in Ukraine is heading for a decisive turning point. Vladimir Putin is expected to deploy at least 300,000 additional troops there soon. Meanwhile, the US and its allies continue to send increasingly sophisticated weapons there. What happens if Russian troops fail to gain significant ground? Is Putin really expecting a fight? Is he willing to negotiate?

1. Why did Putin call for a ceasefire?

Putin called for a ceasefire because soldiers did not want to fight on Christmas. Orthodox Christmas these days is an opportunity for them to connect with their families, relax and drink a lot of wine. Refusing a fight would be unpleasant for Russian soldiers, especially since morale among the troops is so low. Moreover, Putin can only emerge victorious on the basis of propaganda. If Ukrainians honor the fight, they can truly say they are Orthodox “brothers”. If not, he could berate Ukrainian leaders and point out that they don’t respect Christmas. So no ceasefire talks were announced.

2. What are the risks of Putin winning this war?

In the long run, Putin is unlikely to win this war, even if he can militarily occupy the entire country. A few years later, resistance movements would eventually drive him out of Ukraine. But it is far from certain that sending more Russian troops would change the outcome of the war. The Russian military has shown such corruption and incompetence that it is hard to believe that these problems can be solved quickly. In addition, the Ukrainian military is fighting to defend its territory, while Russian soldiers are well aware that they are engaged in a war ultimately aimed only at preserving Putin’s power.

3. Will new weapons change the outcome of the war?

Ukraine has become an ideal testing ground for new weapons. The new hypersonic missiles that Russia wants to send there should do significant damage because they are theoretically unstoppable. However, no one but the Russian General Staff knows how many hypersonic missiles are in storage. Also, their boarding ship is a potential target. One wonders why these missiles are not simply launched from Russian territory. It is possible that Putin wants to strike the imagination. On the other hand, the new weapons the Ukrainians are getting will increase their strike everywhere on the ground. These weapons could be used to attack Russian territory.

4. What are the dangers of war?

Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army could attack the Russian army deep inside Russian territory. Such attacks would be intolerable to the Russian government, which has not failed to threaten the United States and its allies with armed retaliation. So far, no country has sent troops to fight in Ukraine either on the Russian side or on the Ukrainian side, reducing the risk.

5. Can the war end this year?

Barring a series of decisive victories in Ukraine, Putin, like many of his adversaries, may start messing with doors and windows. Putin’s defeat would benefit markets and coalitions of democracies. Instead, a victory for Putin would create more instability and accelerate an arms race around the world.