Unprecedented attack: Here’s what we know about Ukrainian incursions into Russia

Experts say the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region appears to be an unprecedented attack aimed at diverting Russian resources from other regions or undermining morale in Russia.

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In Kiev, the authorities are unusually quiet: no one officially recognizes the operation’s existence and senior officials refuse to comment, even on condition of anonymity.

For its part, Moscow disseminates only sparse information, seeking a balance between condemning the escalation and a desire to avoid panic.

As the fight enters its third day, the key questions surrounding this cross-border incursion are:

What happened?

The Russian military said Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in the Kursk region in southwestern Russia at around 8 a.m. Moscow time (6 a.m. GMT) on Tuesday.

According to Russia, Ukraine has produced a thousand soldiers and a few dozen tanks and other armored vehicles.

The latter accused Ukrainian forces of indiscriminately attacking civilian buildings and sent reinforcements backed by warplanes and artillery to stop the attack in the area, where a state of emergency had been declared.

At least five civilians have been killed and 31 wounded since the incursion began, Russian officials said Wednesday.

Several thousand people fled the war zone on the Russian side, while Ukraine ordered the evacuation of about 6,000 people in the Sumy region on the other side of the border.

Is such penetration routine?

The current offensive appears unusual because of its scale and the fact that it appears to involve regular Ukrainian troops.

Militants from Ukraine have previously made several brief incursions into Russia, with units claiming to be Russian fighting on the Ukrainian side, such as the “Russian Volunteer Force” and the “Brigade for the Independence of Russia”.

So, in mid-March, during the Russian elections, Ukrainian offensive groups repeatedly tried to seize territory in the neighboring Belgorod region, officials say.

Ukraine’s allies were shocked by Tuesday’s attack. Washington said it had contacted Kiev for more information.

Serguiï Zgurets, a Kyiv-based military analyst, told AFP that “photos showing the destruction of Russian and Ukrainian equipment, helicopters, aircraft use, artillery use on both sides” were signs of a large-scale military operation.

How far have Ukrainian forces advanced?

Ukrainian troops have advanced ten kilometers into Russian territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Thursday.

The drive focused on the logistical hub of Soudja, a town of 5,500 people eight kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Russian military bloggers with ties to the military have also reported significant progress, with some saying Ukrainian troops have partially taken control of Chudja and villages.

What are the objectives?

The motives of this move are still unclear, and in the absence of official Ukrainian comments, experts put forward several hypotheses.

For some, the incursion is helping to attract Russian reserves and pull them away from the Ukrainian enclave of Kharkiv (northeast), where Russia launched an offensive in May.

“For now, this is a limited operation, the direct effect of which is to destabilize the Russian group that attacks or ambushes Kharkiv,” military analyst Oleksiï Kopytko said on social networks.

“Judging by the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian operation, sooner or later the enemy will be forced to withdraw troops from other theaters,” Kostiandin Machovets notes on Facebook.

While destabilizing Russia, the attack could also have a psychological impact, boosting the morale of Ukrainians who see their army fighting elsewhere.

“Another goal is to show how Russian society feels when your territory is invaded,” Sergui Zolotky, a senior official at the New Europe Center think tank in Kyiv, told AFP.

Finally, some say that if Ukraine were able to keep these territories, it would become a card to play against Russia in the context of hypothetical peace talks.

It is crucial that Ukraine puts all its assets on its side before the US presidential election, which could once again install Donald Trump in the White House.