What can we learn from 2024's brutally honest Oscar ballots? | Oscars 2024

FForget the actual Oscars. Increasingly, the highlight of awards season is the sudden influx of anonymous Oscar ballots, as actual Oscar voters rush to various industry publications to explain their reasons for voting the way they did.

To be clear, the pleasure of these pieces is not in hearing veteran filmmakers, who at heart have more insight into feature film production than any audience member, praise the work that impressed them most this year. No, the fun thing is that these guys are cartoonishly spiteful and vindictive, and it's crazy to hear them randomly insult everyone in sight.

Although many of the films nominated this year have (unusually for the Oscars) managed to combine critical acclaim with commercial success, this means that many of Sunday's awards have already become a foregone conclusion. Or are they? Let's analyze this year's wave of anonymous Oscar voting to see what the big trends are.

Oppenheimer is sure to win big

There is no escaping the fact that this will be Oppenheimer's year. Of the four voters they spoke to Entertainment WeeklyHalf of the participants voted for the film to win Best Picture, while three of them chose Christopher Nolan for Best Director. one of Anonymous Indiewire sources I went to Oppenheimer for picture, acting, cinematography, direction, editing and score, though it's worth noting that the other voter didn't cast a single vote Oppenheimer's way. Impressively, a diverse group of voters voted for Oppenheimer nearly 40 times. Barbie may have won the battle, but it looks as if Oppenheimer will win the war.

But she may not win everything

Not long ago, it looked as if Oppenheimer's surefire win would come courtesy of Robert Downey Jr., thanks to a combination of talent, good faith, and the fact that he'd won basically every other award in his category. So has the Oscars been closed? Don't be so sure. to Anonymous ballots for Best PictureTwo went with Ryan Gosling while only two ballots were split for Downey Jr. Two Indiewire ballots were split between Gosling and Downey Jr. as well. Of EW's four ballots, two went to Mark Ruffalo, one went to Sterling K. Brown and only one went to Downey Jr. In Variety's somewhat unsatisfactory ballot data dump, the vote was split evenly between Downey Jr., Gosling, Sterling K. Brown, and Mark. Ruffalo. But let's not completely rule out RDJ. as The voter told The Hollywood Reporter“I'll be honest with you: I met Downey at an awards show, and we had an interaction that I didn't initiate, and it turned the tide for me.”

“Bad Things” is the most divisive movie of the year

For everyone who loved Poor Things (one Best Picture voter said of the cinematography, “The visual style of the whole film was so overwhelming and creative”), it seems as if many others couldn't stand it at all. “No one was more excited to see Poor Things than me,” the anonymous director says to the EW panel, “and then I hated it! I was so shocked. I love this director, I love all these actors, how could I hate this movie so much? … It seemed Like he was trying to make this comment on misogyny, but he ended up making this comment on misogyny, for, like, three hours. Meanwhile, one Indiewire voter said of the movie: “I couldn't sit through it. We went to see it in the theater and left after 40 minutes. Emma Stone is currently the favorite to win Best Actress, but that may have been undone by the fact that a lot of people can't stand the movie she's in.

Godzilla might win something

The visual effects category currently seems to be a dichotomy between The Creator and Godzilla Minus One. Interestingly, the split appears to be separate between those who watched the official Oscar VFX “bake-off” demo of Godzilla and those who didn't. The first category was impressed by what the film did on such a small budget, and the fact that the film's director was also the head of the visual effects department. Did enough people watch the presentation to tip the Oscars in favor of the film? not sure. But would it be great if Godzilla won his first ever Oscar? Undoubtedly.

Maybe Bradley Cooper should stay home

You already know that Maestro isn't the best movie ever made, because you've seen it. But your opinions pale greatly next to the outrage the film sparked in actual Oscar voters. The director told EW: “I hated the maestro, absolutely hated him… If you're going to go that far with makeup and prosthetics, God forbid Bradley Cooper hide his beautiful, piercing blue eyes to be precise. It was a show of vanity for the actor. And at the same time “I didn't like the maestro… either,” the voter told EW writer [Bradley Cooper was] awesome. He didn't take his cigarette out of his mouth the whole time, and I could barely hear him. He was mumbling all the time. I thought it was a terrible performance.” An Indiewire voter said: “Maestro was an ego trip for Bradley Cooper,” while a Next Best Picture voter said: “I didn't bother seeing Maestro. Two people I trust in the industry said very strongly to me, ‘Don't waste your time,' so I didn't do it.” Better luck next time, Bradley.