“It was not accidental, it was clearly part of a clear plan,” war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets said in a Facebook post.
Military analyst Mykhailo Gerochov agreed, telling the BBC that Russia had been forced to redeploy some of its forces from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
“If you look at the official reports, the number of Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk region was much lower,” he said.
“This means that the planes carrying them are now located elsewhere in Russia.”
It is highly unlikely that these incursions were aimed at occupying Russian territory, but if drawing Russian forces in was the goal, that goal was quickly achieved.
Recent history may also play a role. Russia has launched a major cross-border offensive in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine.
Progress appears to have slowed after the United States gave Ukraine permission to use its missiles on targets inside Russia.
Ukrainian fears of a similar attack in the northern Sumy region grew over the next three months.
Given ongoing Western fears of an escalating war, it is likely that some permission would have been granted for an operation of this magnitude on Russian territory.
In general, very few senior Ukrainian figures have spoken out about this attack.
The president’s office told us: “No comment yet.”
Although similar incursions have occurred before, this is the first time regular Ukrainian forces have been used in this way.
Where there is a lot of chatter, it is across borders.
