July 16, 2024

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Worried that Biden and Trump could hurt your investment portfolio? Well, there’s nowhere to hide!

Worried that Biden and Trump could hurt your investment portfolio? Well, there’s nowhere to hide!

This is the summary of today’s morning brief, which you can subscription To be delivered to your inbox every morning with:

I’ve always found it interesting to put stock market predictions into the context of personal life experiences.

And I have a new one to share with you dedicated to Morning Brief Readers today.

As I was running barefoot outside on a Fourth of July in sweltering heat as part of an obsessive training program, I had some fleeting thoughts about where stocks were headed ahead of the November presidential election.

This scene reminds me of childhood times when I would do something wrong and my dad would try to discipline me. I would always run to the closet and close the door, thinking he wouldn’t find me there with my Transformers and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles toys.

I made mistakes over and over again – he found me, and I learned in those moments that there was really no place to hide.

This is what investors face in the run-up to a presidential election, professionals tell me.

“My simple answer is that the United States is so huge and so formidable that if the United States does not act [around the election]“There are very few places to hide,” Bradesco’s head of equity strategy Ben Laidler said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Show podcast (video above or listen to it). here).

“I can suggest one or two reasons,” Laidler added. “China might be one of them. But as you know, there are very few places to hide.”

This really makes a lot of sense to me.

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Are you planning to sell 50% of your highly profitable NVDA stake by the end of the summer and invest all your money in Europe in the hope that it will be less volatile?

The European Union’s GDP in the first quarter rose by a small 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The fourth quarter GDP was revised to -0.1% from 0% previously. The EU was in a technical recession in the second half of 2023!

We are not expected to see a real acceleration in growth in the European Union from now on.

Inflation in the European Union remains omnipresent, prompting European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to dismiss expectations of another interest rate cut this year. The ECB decided to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its meeting on June 6.

The bottom line is that Europe lacks incentives.

Let’s take a quick look at China.

China’s GDP rose 5.3% in the first quarter, but investment in real estate and property development fell 9.5%. One industrial CEO recently told me they don’t expect their business in China to improve until later in 2025.

A former senior cabinet member under President George W. Bush told me details of his recent visit to China a few weeks ago. They were surprised by the negative tone among Chinese consumers and feared a sudden economic slowdown ahead because of tight household budgets.

All of this is in line with recent weak sales in China from consumer goods giants Nike (NKE) and Levi’s (LEVI).

Thus, China and Europe are off the negotiating table.

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“We have already seen sharp market reactions to elections in India, Mexico and France,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, told clients in a note.

That’s it for those countries.

Bitcoin may be able to shake off the recent sell-off and capitalize on its pre-election bid as a hedge against the growing deficit that is hurting the credibility of the US dollar.

But who knows.

“The election is one component of the wall of anxiety that I think the market will continue to climb, along with fears of inflation and recession,” Laidler added.

Barely comfortable.

Just like you did when you were a kid, you’ll have to take the pain in the markets from the Biden-Trump chaos. The truth is, there’s nowhere to hide.

Peter Tuchman, one of Wall Street’s most prominent experts, said the long-term uptrend in the markets is still intact. Listen to what he had to say below. Opening show.

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Find more episodes of the opening show on our website. Video CenterWatch on your screen. Favorite streaming serviceOr listen and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify Or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

Click here for an in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events that move stock prices.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance.