July 16, 2024

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A historical perspective: Biden should be a candidate, historian says

A historical perspective: Biden should be a candidate, historian says

A historian who has accurately predicted the results of nine of the past 10 elections implored Democratic leaders on Monday not to abandon President Joe Biden.

Last week, according to many observers, Biden delivered a tough performance against Donald Trump.

Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, believes Democrats would be making a huge mistake by toppling President Biden.

“Remember, all the experts saw Hillary Clinton winning three debates in 2016,” he reminded CNN. They all said Trump was done. They are often wrong. […] As for Biden’s abilities, I’m not a neuroscientist [les observateurs] Not neurologists. They are not qualified to comment on this,” he said.

“I would say it’s much better to judge Biden over three years into his presidency instead of 90 minutes,” he added.

The professor’s prediction method has predicted the winner of all but one presidential election since 1984. It relies on 13 “White House keywords”: president and party tenure, competition, third parties, long-term economy, short-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandals, current president’s charisma, opponent’s charisma, and foreign policy wins.

Not since the 20th century has a candidate from a major political party been “reelected in the event of an uncertain or contested nomination,” said Alan Lichtman.

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