Biden, Harris, and Polling

The polls are equally bad for Joe Biden: 70% of American voters believe their country is on the wrong track; 70% would prefer the Democratic president not to run for re-election in 2024; Less than 45% are satisfied with his performance in the White House. Still, do Democratic leaders, elected officials and strategists believe Biden will be elected? Did they all fall on their heads?

Two articles, one published The New York Times Another is through journalism Atlantic, try to explain the phenomenon. Unlike his rival, Biden doesn’t have to fight for his party’s nomination, and that’s partly because the electoral map favors Democrats on potential stakes, including abortion. A word on this map: States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which were real battlegrounds in 2016 and 2020, are no longer so, at least in the midterm elections and as their constituents reject what Biden calls “MAGA extremism” and a threat to American democracy.

Speaking of advantages for Democrats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, The New York Times Even the expression “blue wall” emerges, which was used in 2016 to explain how Hillary Clinton could outwit Donald Trump. We know the rest of this story. History allows us today to say that the Democrats’ belief may have been misplaced or premature. The presidential election will be held in 18 months, and the US could face an economic recession or international conflict from now on that could favor the Republican candidate.

Another notable event: Joe Biden presenting to Kamala Harris Video There he announces his candidacy. The venue delighted admirers of the vice president, who was called to play a key role in the Democratic Party’s criticism of Republican policies on abortion. But where the former senator from California has pleased Republican critics is not only that he wants to capitalize on his unpopularity, but also that some voters fear seeing him succeed a Democratic president. .

There is much more to be said about this Democratic campaign, which officially launched on Tuesday. In 18 months, we will have time to clarify the matter.

(Photo by Reuters)