April 16, 2024

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Donald Trump's lead melts like ice in the sun

Donald Trump's lead melts like ice in the sun

A month after Super Tuesday and the State of the Union address, Joe Biden's approval rating is on the rise, and Donald Trump's victory isn't looking promising.

For months, Donald Trump has been trumpeting his unassailable lead in voting intentions. However, this lead is disappearing as good weather returns.

One way movement

If opinion polls are not a good tool for predicting six months before an election, they are a good tool for measuring opinion movement.

While most polls in January and February gave Trump the advantage, about fifteen recent polls by reputable houses gave Biden a slim lead.

Biden's rise in ratings is reflected even among punters. According to the compiled betting average Real clear politicsTrump's estimated probability of victory remained steady at 44 percent, while Biden's increased from 27 to 39 percent.


This movement is explained in part by clarifying the issues at stake in the election. For a long time, polls unfavorable to Biden reflected public dissatisfaction with persistent inflation everywhere else in the world.

In the absence of a concrete electoral choice, pollsters designed to respond to Americans tended to express their displeasure by threatening to vote against the president.

But, even after a month, one truth became apparent. This election will not be a referendum on Joe Biden, but a choice between him and the Republican challenger who has long proven to be the best motivator to rally a strong majority against him.

Warning signs

It is certain that the election will be close, that it will play out in a few key states, that even a small fraction of the electorate can be persuaded to switch sides, and that the parties will win a strong contest. Vote out.

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In this sense, the Biden campaign has significant advantages. Notably, polls and polls over the past few years have shown that while Trump's support is higher than Biden's, his ceiling is lower. In fact, it's not impossible that Trump is already there, and he's made no effort to reach new voters beyond his partisan base.

Instead, the Biden campaign is hopeful that it can turn the tide, especially thanks to a well-stocked campaign fund. While the two campaigns have comparable fundraising abilities, Trump's legal fees are discouraging many potential donors and draining a significant portion of the party's resources.

Already, Democrats have established a solid base in key states and Republicans are lagging behind in this area. While Biden's campaign will have substantial resources to get its message across on major events and rallying issues, Trump will spend most of his time in court, in the dock.