Experts are predicting a historically intense hurricane season

During the Atlantic basin hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, experts predict 17 to 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14. They also predict 8 to 13 hurricanes as opposed to 7 on average. Finally, 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 and above) are expected in the 2024 season, even if the average is 3.

The effects of these numerous tropical storms were felt as far away as Quebec. Potential effects could be of the same order as those following the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Fiona over the Magdalen Islands in 2022.

When will the first named storm occur?

Despite this forecast, as of May 23, the first named storm had yet to occur in the Northern Hemisphere, all basins converged: since 1983! This is mainly due to the lack of unrecorded storms in the western Pacific basin, where we usually see the first named storm in spring or even winter.

Rest assured that it is perfectly normal for no named storms to form in the Atlantic this time of year. As a guide, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic basin is June 20. So it’s a quiet start to the season, but it’s not an indicator of what to expect in the coming months.

Why will hurricane season be so active this year?

Two reasons explain this phenomenon.

First, surface water temperatures in the Atlantic are much warmer than normal. Because warm water is the primary fuel of tropical systems, the chances of seeing named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes increase.