May 18, 2024

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La Niña will take its time, and Quebec will emerge victorious this summer

Published on May 9, 2024 at 9:13 pm

Good news for summer in Quebec. forecast.


A new prediction

According to NOAA’s latest forecasts, the regression of the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña may extend somewhat. Experts estimate that neutral conditions will last for a while at the height of summer. In fact, the surface water temperature is normal during the June-July-August quarter.

Nina 1

The water cools

Note that the El Niño phenomenon reigns over the equatorial Pacific for several months. Currently, surface water temperatures are approaching normal, meaning the end of the regime. The neutral phase is near. However, NOAA forecasters expect La Niña, the cold anomaly, to return by the end of summer.

Nina 2

What does this mean for the coming summer in Quebec? Apparently, water temperature in the Pacific is not the only phenomenon affecting the summer climate in La Belle Province. However, similar conditions in recent years have shown that the season will turn satisfactory when neutral conditions are maintained in summer.

Nina 3

La Niña in autumn

Next fall is expected to be under the rule of La Niña. Remember that between August and October, tropical activity enters its most intense period. This can create a favorable environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. In fact, the warm water, low wind shear and instability in this basin favors the birth of storms.

Nina 4

In collaboration with meteorologist Patrick Duplessis.


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