Nuclear threats: Do you believe Biden or the CIA?

Joe Biden’s warning that the world is at risk of a “nuclear apocalypse” sends a message that the risk of Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real and should not be underestimated.

However, intelligence sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, were quick to tell the media that there was no evidence that Putin had any immediate plans for a nuclear attack.

Should we believe these reassuring estimates from the US Secret Service?

Yes, that’s right, they correctly predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the CIA mistakenly believed that Putin would soon capture the capital, Kiev — within days — and occupy the rest of the country.

CIA, serial bullshit

Here is a non-exhaustive list of the agency’s most egregious errors.

• On October 13, 1950, the CIA assured President Truman that China would not send troops to Korea. Six days later, a million Chinese soldiers crossed the Korean border.
• On September 19, 1962, the CIA told Kennedy that it was not the Soviets’ intention to station nuclear missiles in Cuba. On October 14, U-2 spy planes photographed Soviet missiles there.
• In August 1978, the CIA told the president that there were no pre-revolutionary conditions in Iran. Six months later, the Shah’s pro-American regime was overthrown.
• In 1979, Soviet forces had been massed on the border of Afghanistan for weeks before invading the country, to the dismay of a clueless CIA.
• In 1989, the CIA could not predict the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the agency’s primary mission was to gather intelligence on the Soviet Union.
• On July 31, 1990, the CIA dismissed the imminent Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as baseless. Two days later, the country was occupied by Saddam Hussein’s forces.
• The CIA was unable to detect preparations for the September 11, 2001 attacks by Saudi jihadists (Osama Bin Laden) financed through Pakistan to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Negotiation, urgent!

Retired Chief of Staff Mike Mullen should be taken seriously when he talks about nuclear war. According to him, Putin is “an animal backed into a corner.” (a corner animal). He encourages the United States to quickly bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table.

Moscow said it was open to discussing the Turkish proposal for new talks. Putin will meet Turkish President Erdogan in Kazakhstan this week. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia broke down in Istanbul in March. Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu said some NATO countries wanted to continue the war to weaken Russia.