War in Ukraine: Russian soldiers refuse to fight

The Ukrainians said they were continuing to regain ground and the Russians stepped up their strikes on Tuesday in response to the advance in recent days.

• Read more: The Ukrainian army captured almost 6000 km2 from the Russians

Here is an update on the situation on the 202nd day of the war, based on information from AFP journalists, Ukrainian and Russian official reports, Western sources, analysts and international organizations.

The Russian military has announced a “massive offensive” on all fronts in response to enemy forces’ encroachment in northeastern Ukraine and their advance in the south.

“Russian air, ballistic and artillery forces are carrying out massive attacks against Ukrainian Armed Forces units in all areas of operation,” the Russian Defense Ministry said, adding that shelling was carried out in the regions of Sloviansk, Konstantinivka and Pakmut (East), Mykolayiv and Zaporizhia. south) as well as Kharkiv (northeast).

The barrage of strikes is in response to a Ukrainian counteroffensive in recent days.

Emancipation of local bodies

“The liberation of settlements from Russian invaders continues in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions,” the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday.

In the evening, Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak released a video in which a voiceover explained: “The 14th separate mechanized brigade has reached the border of the Kharkiv region with Russia. This is Ternova village, five kilometers from the Russian border.

“Since the beginning of September, our soldiers have already liberated 6,000 km2 of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and we are still making progress,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video posted online on Monday evening, while Kyiv claimed 3,000 only the day before. km2 “Liberation”.

Many experts point to the hasty abandonment of aircraft and equipment by Russian soldiers. But Ukrainian progress has not been rapid.

Different observers emphasize the importance of a river, the Oskol, in this part of the foreland.

He explained to AFP that the Russians “have decided to abandon the whole of Kharkiv (…) and are now (…) concentrated behind Oskol, which is a natural barrier that will be difficult for the Ukrainians to cross.” Pierre Grasser, historian of international relations and researcher associated with the Sirius Observatory.

In the Kherson region, Kyiv said it had recaptured 500 km2 in two weeks, the first quantitative assessment of its progress in the south.

The US Institute of Warfare (ISW) on Monday confirmed the withdrawal of Russian forces from several locations, based on satellite images. This could “compromise (their) ability to defend the suburbs north-west of Kherson and suggest that (they) see an imminent threat to their positions in this area”.

The Ukrainians “routinely attack military, logistical and transport facilities” in the region, the agency added.

Refusal to fight

Ukrainian military general staff say the Russian 810th Marine Infantry Regiment has lost 85% of its personnel and its soldiers are refusing to return to combat.

Every passing day brings us closer to the winter deadline. Extreme cold, low visibility, complicated travel, men and supplies in distress.

Pierre Grasser emphasizes that Ukrainians “have a very positive pace between the end of summer and autumn”, but know that “in winter, it will be more complicated”.

The current military and diplomatic situation in Kiev is favorable. But “in terms of human resources, there are risks” that the war “will weaken over time the human resources that favor Ukraine.”