January 28, 2022

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Epidemic: Here are the predictions that frighten Franுவாois Legault

Experts from the Quebec government estimate that the Omigran variant may increase the dizziness of COVID-19 patients during the holidays, with more than 4,000 new cases and 200 new hospital admissions each day.

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The most recent forecasts by the National Institutes of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) were released yesterday, one of which was that Prime Minister Fran பிரான்ois Legald confirmed on Thursday evening that the situation was “critical”.

The expected curve of the number of new cases per day is rising so fast that it is not possible to see where its peak is (Graphic below) However, the curve may see a decline again in February.

“There may be a rapid and general increase in community outreach between those who have not been vaccinated and those who have been vaccinated twice,” INSPQ wrote in its December 16 statement.

Many more hospitals

INSPQ’s predictions are “very uncertain” because they are based on preliminary observations that Omigron will spread more easily than the delta variant, and that vaccines will be less effective in combating this new variant of the virus.

Scientists say, “Omigran may be less severe than delta, however, in terms of hospital admission and the risk of death per case.”

Nevertheless, they expect significant impact on the health network.

“Although the Omigran variant is three times smaller than the delta variant, there may be a significant increase in hospital admissions due to the rapid growth of cases,” they note.

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The modeling, released yesterday, shows that the number of people admitted to the new hospital in the coming weeks could exceed 200 a day.

This would mean a huge increase from the current situation. For example, on Thursday, there were a total of 312 COVID-19-related hospitals in the province, up 7 from the previous day.

“Like many other countries and provinces, the spread of Omigran in Quebec could put significant pressure on the healthcare system. A significant increase in the number of cases could lead to disruptions in many socio-economic sectors due to the lack of high rates, ”experts warn.

New activities

Scientists at INSPQ and Université Laval, which are responsible for these predictions, insist that their modeling takes into account the increase in the number of people-to-people contacts during the holidays, but that no additional health measures have been imposed.

Prime Minister on Thursday Franாங்கois Legalt announced that the limit for people attending holiday meetings had been raised from 20 to 10.. Non-essential businesses, like theaters from Monday, must operate at 50% of their capacity. Dancing in bars and karaoke is banned again.

In a single day on Thursday, 3,768 new cases were identified.

What can happen at Omigron …

  • If it is three times less than the delta variant
  • If it is slightly more conductive than the delta variant
  • If more resistant to vaccines than the delta variant

New daily cases

New daily hospitals

Source: INSPQ