After Joe Biden’s discomfort in the debate, Donald Trump’s victory took on an air of inevitability that was reinforced by the attack he survived.
If comments from all over the place are to be believed from Saturday, the carrot-cooking and electing of Donald Trump has been a success.
The site’s respectable predictive model, even as Republicans chill the champagne Five thirty eight Leaning in favor of Biden by a hair!
It’s not for nothing. Even if the wind blows in the Trump campaign, the tide may be turning.
Where is the wave?
More than two weeks into the debate, we’re seeing real swing toward Trump in a few key states. Even if statewide polls are notoriously volatile, Democrats should realize they have ways to climb.
However, this gradient is not insurmountable. Nationally, polling averages have moved a few points in favor of Trump, but no more than they moved in favor of Biden a short time ago. Even polls taken immediately after the attack on Trump showed no significant movement.
There is not a red tide, and perhaps there will not be, because the ideas of the majority of Americans are already firmly established in the minds of the people.
What is refocusing?
Saturday’s attack and the Milwaukee conference may have an impact on public opinion, but it will be marginal and reversible.
The offensive has calmed the campaign, but it won’t last. Trump’s promises to adopt a more unifying tone soon evaporated. A confirmation of this is the appointment of a companion who is completely converted to the cult of his personality.
In the same message that he promised to adopt a unified approach, Trump calls for all criminal and civil charges against him to be dropped, and he continues to spread the big lie that he will steal the victory in 2020.
From his point of view, unity is clearly the total surrender of his critics to his all-powerful leadership. Ask Nikki Haley…
What is coming
In politics, as the past few days have shown us, a week is an eternity. Elections are just 15 weeks away.
In the Democratic Party, unity will return when a replacement for Biden is no longer on the table. After this week’s show, which gives Republicans a small boost, it’s August for Democrats to put on their show and get an equal boost.
More fundamentally, there is continued improvement in real economic conditions that favors Biden. Employment is growing, stock market indices are rising, inflation is under control, prices of some essential commodities are falling and interest rates are likely to ease.
When voters (yes, there are some!) who are still unconnected to politics wake up in September, it is this reality that will encourage many to choose Biden rather than vote for a criminal.
As this election draws closer, Donald Trump appears to have the gift of turning difficult circumstances in his favor, but all is not yet decided.
