War with Russia is imminent, especially in Europe. This does not mean that war is inevitable. However, rather than the old saying, si vis pacem para bellum, if you want peace prepare for war has become essential to the definition of principles today. No one in the democracies wants a war with Russia. But it is clear that Russia, like China, Iran and North Korea, is preparing for war. The arms effort of these countries goes beyond the simple security needs of their territory. The best solution for democracies is to raise the cost of war for these countries. The cost of this arms effort can be invested elsewhere. But diplomacy is running out of steam. Dictatorships are arrogant because they believe democracy is weak.
1) How is the position of European leaders changing?
On February 26, Emmanuel Macron caused a scandal by declaring that sending European soldiers to Ukrainian soil should not be avoided. Agreeing, the leaders of Norway and Lithuania have joined him in recent days. The Lithuanian foreign minister recalled that as a former Soviet republic, his country was well aware of the intentions of the Russians and their desire for their former territories.
2) What economic measures are European leaders proposing?
European leaders have taken note of the reluctance of the US Congress to subsidize the war in Ukraine. They decide to finance the war to the extent of 0.2% of their GDP. They are also considering confiscating the cache of Russian capital frozen in Europe since the start of the war. Also, more and more voices are calling for the transformation of European countries into war economies.
3) What signs show that Russia is preparing for war with Europe?
Significant changes in tone in Russian leaders' statements worry European leaders. Yesterday, for the first time, Russian officials admitted that Russia was in a state of war, but the fault lay with the “collective West” (a new term) sending weapons to Ukraine. The deputy head of the Duma also declared: “We don't care what Macron says.” “We are going to kill all the French soldiers.” He added that the French prime minister, who is openly gay, is a pervert. Yesterday, Macron argued that Russian leaders' undiplomatic statements reflected the Kremlin's growing nervousness.
4) What other signs indicate that Russia is preparing to confront Europe?
The confirmation of Vladimir Putin as Russia's president gives the latter more latitude. Many observers point out that the Russian military will have at least a third more soldiers this summer compared to 2022.
5) Did Russian officials underestimate democracy?
Clearly yes, they continue to do so. Putin's war in Ukraine is planned to last only a few days. Europeans had to be divided on the question. Indeed, the war in Ukraine cemented democracies and refocused their attention on the essentials, namely protecting the rights of their citizens in the face of the tyranny of dictators from elsewhere.
