What to expect after the legislative elections in France? | French legislative elections 2024

The French have been invited to vote on Sunday in the first round of early legislative elections, surprising everyone after Emmanuel Macron’s party suffered a crushing defeat in the European elections.

On June 9, the president’s party bit the dust in the European Parliament elections. His list received 14.60% of the vote, less than half the 31.37% of the far-right National Rally (RN) party led by Jordan Bartella and Marine Le Pen.

These poor results on the European scene in no way forced him to hold elections in France. MEPs sit in Strasbourg and deal with issues related to the European Union (EU).

However, President Macron, who has been in the minority in the French National Assembly since the 2022 election, has been struggling to complete his plans, surprising everyone by calling early legislative elections.

Political miscalculation, sheer insanity, a poker move… Analysts are still struggling to understand what drove Emmanuel Macron to act this way ahead of these national elections.

The National Rally – formerly the National Front – has formed a coalition with part of the Republican Party (LR), bringing together the traditional and conservative right of Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, putting forward a joint candidacy.

This decision of the chairman LREric Ciotti rocked the party, He always maintained that he would not cooperate with the National RallyFrédéric Merand, professor and director of the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal, notes.

But the National Rally allowed its voter turnout to nearly double compared to results two years ago. According to some polls, he is now at the top of voting intentions with up to 36% of the vote.

In second place is the new Popular Front, which unites La France Insumais (LFI) by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Communist Party, Socialist Party and ecologists. This unlikely coalition of the left gets 28% support in the polls.

What happened on the left was amazingFrédéric Mérand observes. years. They disagree on almost everything. There, in three days, they agreed to go to war together, to have separate candidates in each constituency, and to have a common plan of government.” Hatred for nearly 20 years. They disagreed on almost everything. There, in three days, they agreed to go to war together, to have separate candidates in each constituency, and to have a common plan. They also agreed to have a government program.”}}”>Between rebellious France and the Socialist Party, there was almost 20 years of absolute hatred. They disagree on almost everything. There, in three days, they agreed to fight together, field separate candidates in each constituency, and formulate a common plan of government.

Not seeing this alliance coming, the President There is a risk of being completely or almost eliminated in these electionsMr. Merand underlines.

His constituency received only 20% of voting intentions. Polls predict he will hold a maximum of a hundred delegates, far less than the 250 he controlled when the assembly was dissolved. On the right and the left, the French are furious with MacronErwan Lecoeur, an expert on the extreme right and a teacher-researcher at Grenoble Alpes University, notes.

What can be expected from the second round of assembly elections on July 7?

1. Majority Government RN

If RN and its allies won an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 seats out of 577), whose president, Jordan Bardella, was prime minister. In theory, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to be appointed, but this role usually falls to the leader of the majority party, as his nomination must be approved by the National Assembly.

We will have a coexistence system with a president – who has not yet started the third year of his second five-year term – and a government with different tendencies.

Their policies are opposite in many respects”,”text”:”There will be very strong tensions as their policies are opposite in many respects”}}”>There will be very strong tensions as their policies are opposite on many issuesFrédéric Mérand underlines.

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On domestic policy, Merand expects legislation to focus on law and order, as well as toughening migration and security policy.

In foreign policy, the RN There are hostile positionsNATO, For pro-EU and pro-Russian tendencies. However, Mr. Bardella noted during his program that he sees Russia as a multidimensional threat to France and Europe. He also said that France will not back down from its promises to help Ukraine.

The RN However, unlike Emmanuel Macron, who is opposed to sending troops on the ground, he refuses to exclude this option.

According to the constitution, the president is responsible for foreign policy and defense, but in practice he still needs the approval of the legislature for major decisions.

2. Relative majority for RN

With 36% voting intention, it is likely that the RN However, absolute majority could not be achieved.

Relatively majority, This is the hypothesis that Macron thinks Jordan Bardella will stick with because he will be in the same position. [l’actuel premier ministre] Gabriel AtalErwan Lecoeur explains. That is to say that he cannot decide and needs a majority which he does not get.

Jordan Bardella has already commented that he cannot become Prime Minister if his party does not have a majority. I need an absolute majority to form the governmentsaid in a recent interview.

Who could believe that living with a relative majority could change the daily lives of the French? person I say to the French: to try us, we need an absolute majority.

Will he still accept the post of Prime Minister? Also, would Emmanuel Macron appoint him under these circumstances?

The president may choose someone else, perhaps a technocrat, to lead the country until the next elections, Mr. Lecoeur notes. A new assembly election cannot be held for one year.

Anyway, here’s the recipe Permanent legislative deadlock, believes Frédéric Mérand. It’s also a scenario that leaves more room for Emmanuel Macron to maneuver to create a majority vote and oppose it. RN.

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3. Leftists in power?

Even more unlikely, but still possible, is a left-wing majority.

LFI and Communists, we come to 30%, which is not far from the National Rally”,”text”:”With their unique nomination system, if we combine the votes of the Socialist Party, Greens, LFI and Communists, we get 30%, not far from the National Rally”}}”>If we combine the votes of the Socialist Party, the Greens, with their unique nomination system, LFI And among the Communists, we come to 30%, not far from the National Rally, recalls Frédéric Mérand. In the second round, if voters on the center and right choose the left, blocking the right from the right, the NFP can win.

At this stage, it is difficult to say who will be their candidate for the post of Prime Minister, even if the coalition survives in the medium term.

Either way, analysts worry about the uncertain period ahead for France.