The next decisions regarding the possibility of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia could have repercussions around the world.
“Everyone’s vision is now on Russia and NATO and is on the alert,” said Loik Dasse, a political scientist and lecturer at the University of Montreal.
International tensions have risen since US intelligence learned on Friday that Vladimir Putin could issue an order to invade Ukraine “at any time”.
Despite the deployment of about 100,000 heavily armed Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, the diplomatic channel is still being put forward by NATO, despite the threat of a “rapid attack” on the capital.
If there is an invasion, it should be noted above all a guerrilla warfare within the country. The risks of World War III were low. Says Dassey.
By taking this path, the United States and its allies have “significantly reduced the likelihood of escalating this conflict,” says the political scientist.
But the reluctance to retaliate during an attack could provide ideas for countries other than “severe sanctions.”
Mr. Dassault wonders: Will this “weak” US reaction provoke Iran to eat some of its neighbors or push China to attack Taiwan?
“It gives the impression that we are reluctant to intervene. It is this opportunity that worries me. This conflict could have children. It could be a blow to democracy,” he said.