This is the most anticipated scene in the West. By attacking the Russian economy with severe sanctions, others are coming, and they are trying to weaken Vladimir Putin’s regime to the point of bringing about its downfall.
The military may decide not to pursue him anymore, the people are revolting in the face of a major economic crisis, and the oligarchs are leaving after seizing their assets. But what happens next remains unpredictable.
“Regime change in Russia may seem to be the only way out of this tragedy. Corn […] That fact must be taken into account. “
There is a similar warning on the part of Andrei Kolsnikov of the Carnegie Center, who points out that Putin is popular according to independent analysts.
“Currently, unprecedented Western financial pressure has turned the Russian political class and oligarchy into” staunch supporters of their leader, “he said. Kolsnikov explains.
President Vladimir Putin did not hide his longing for the days of the Soviet Union.
After invading Belarus and occupying Ukraine, can it see Moldova and Georgia or the four NATO countries that share borders with Ukraine?
Bruno Tertris, a political scientist who specializes in geopolitical and strategic analysis, believes that Moscow could seek to balance the security of European and Atlantic maritime security “either by provoking it on its borders” or by cyber-attacks in particular.
“It is not possible for Russia to challenge NATO because both parties want to avoid it,” said former Admiral Pascal Azzur, director of the Mediterranean Strategic Research Foundation.
However, “Russian troops are returning to NATO Lithuania to annex Kaliningrad [à la Biélorussie] It is possible, ”he told the AFP.
“Even a misunderstanding or conflict over boundaries is possible [européennes] In Ukraine or the Black Sea, many warplanes and warships are stationed within a limited area, ”he said. Azzur says.
This is Putin’s favorite. The superior Russian army may push Ukraine to give up. However, this result is not possible.
Lawrence Friedman, a British historian at King’s College London, said: “This is a war that Putin cannot win, no matter how long, no matter how brutal.” Entering a city is not the same as having it.
Bruno Tertris, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, sees several alternatives.
He writes that the integration of the whole of Ukraine is “unlikely”. The partition of the country in 1945, like that of Korea or Germany, was, to him, not credible. “Russia has the option of managing to establish a puppet regime [pro-Poutine] In Kiev.
The Ukrainians surprise everyone, with the total mobilization, even though the destruction and losses are huge.
“The government, the military, the administration have not fallen,” a Western envoy said. Contrary to Putin’s speech, “the people do not accept the Russians as liberators,” he added, noting that “probably too soon to qualify for the difficulties in the Russian military chain.”
Ukrainian forces backed by Western intelligence services and arms supplies could drag their adversary into a devastating urban conflict, but knowledge of the terrain there would be crucial. The history of the guerrillas shows that those who defend their territory have advantages.
Putin put his nuclear weapons on “special alert” last week, a statement that is threatening and devoid of real substance, because some nuclear weapons are unusable at any time.
According to Christopher Chivis, of the Carnegie Center, a “tactical” atomic bomb could be used by Russia to target military targets.
“It is not necessary to cross the threshold of nuclear power […] Immediate global nuclear war. But it will be the most dangerous turning point in world history, ”he wrote.
For his part, Gustav Gressel of the European Council for International Relations further assures. He acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Russia’s ambitions and that Putin’s statements were “intended to intimidate Western audiences.”